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How To Interpret The Odds

How To Trade Using Odds

How To Interpret The Odds
(Written Version)

Odds for each stock/crpyto are calculated as follows:

  1. First, we find all the trading days since 2010 where the stock/crypto moved (in percentage terms) an equivalent amount to what the stock/crypto has moved today.*
  2. Then, we calculate the return that would have been realized on each of these past trading days (past occurrences) if you bought the stock/crypto at the point it was up/down the exact amount it is up/down today and held until:
    • The same day’s market close for Same Day Live Odds
    • The next trading day’s market close for One Day Live Odds
    • The market close five (seven for crypto) trading days later for One Week Live Odds
  3. Finally, based on all those past occurrences, we calculate the following statistics/odds for each timeframe:
    • “Average Return” or “Avg”: The average return of all the past occurrences
    • “Up Odds”: The percent of past occurrences that would have yielded a positive (up) return
    • “Up Trades”: The number of past occurrences that were positive
    • “Down Trades”: The number of past occurrences that were negative
    • “Min”: The past occurence with the lowest return
    • “Max”: The past occurence with the highest return
    • Histogram Bars: Each bar corresponds to a return range based on the two values underneath the bar. The number on top of the bar represents the number of past occurrences that had a return within this range. The bars are sized relative to this value.

*The move has to have occurred during market hours.