How To Interpret The Odds

How To Interpret The Odds
(Written Version)

Odds for each stock/crpyto are calculated as follows:

1. First, we find all the trading days since 2010 where the stock/crypto moved (in percentage terms) an equivalent amount to what the stock/crypto has moved today.*
2. Then, we calculate the return that would have been realized on each of these past trading days (past occurrences) if you bought the stock/crypto at the point it was up/down the exact amount it is up/down today and held until:
• The same day’s market close for Same Day Live Odds
• The next trading day’s market close for One Day Live Odds
• The market close five (seven for crypto) trading days later for One Week Live Odds
3. Finally, based on all those past occurrences, we calculate the following statistics/odds for each timeframe:
• “Average Return” or “Avg”: The average return of all the past occurrences
• “Up Odds”: The percent of past occurrences that would have yielded a positive (up) return
• “Up Trades”: The number of past occurrences that were positive
• “Down Trades”: The number of past occurrences that were negative
• “Min”: The past occurence with the lowest return
• “Max”: The past occurence with the highest return
• Histogram Bars: Each bar corresponds to a return range based on the two values underneath the bar. The number on top of the bar represents the number of past occurrences that had a return within this range. The bars are sized relative to this value.

*The move has to have occurred during market hours.